Possibilities 2050
A concise assessment of the potential state of our world in 2050
For thinking people struggling to see the Big Picture
"Readable style, sanguine look, minus the panic, obvious bias or absolute positions of other reports" - Samvado, UK.
"I like the wide view and in-depth thinking you're able to combine - it's a capacity not many have mastered" - Ralph, Netherlands.
This report is available as a PDF for download, circulation and discussion groups. It will be available as an e-book and audio book later on.
It's written to help you clarify your understanding of what could be coming - it's important, since we're at a critical stage of human history.
It's written to help you clarify your understanding of what could be coming - it's important, since we're at a critical stage of human history.
It doesn't seek to predict the future, neither to advocate what the author believes should happen. He has his perspectives, biases and feelings, like anyone, but having put a lifetime of thought into this subject, he has striven to form a balanced, all-round, human-sized view in this report.
Forecasting the future involves a lot of qualified speculation spiced with a good measure of uncertainty. Anyone who pretends otherwise needs a reality-check. When the future becomes the present, that's our reality-check. Until then, it's all careful guesstimates.
There are many variables, unknowns, unknowables, complexities and considerations involved in assessing the future. All the same, likelihoods can be identified. By looking at overall trends and potentials visible today and hovering under the surface, and at mechanisms shaping the future, we can ready our thoughts for a spectrum of possibilities. Resilience means having a range of strategies for dealing with whatever comes up.
It's perplexing and a big question. Understandably, many people don't think much about it, except for bursts of concern when dramatic news floods the media. It's all so big and daunting, and we all have busy lives.
The situation isn't neat and simple. Many people seek definite forecasts, answers and solutions, but this is not possible, neither is it honest.
Our world has a remarkable variety of people and cultures, each with their own perspectives, questions and answers. The future will be hammered out between us all through a process of debate, fermentation, tugging and pushing, incidents, accidents, breakthroughs, disappointments and heavy lifting, involving everyone. That's how things will be decided.
This report highlights awkward dilemmas and contradictions, leaving many questions unanswered. The report seeks to give a succinct overview of the whole situation, with enough detail but not too much.
What happens in the future depends on what we all do with it and, in particular, how we resolve one key question: who decides?
No charge, no strings - so that anyone anywhere can access it, regardless of finances or where you live.
Enjoy the ride. First, the Introduction...
Contents
Introduction
The Main Issues
Further Issues
Conclusion
Palden Jenkins is an independent thinker and polymath who as been involved with geopolitics, history, humanitarian aid, community projects, backchannel diplomacy and future-proofing consultancy. Now retired and dealing with cancer, he lives on an organic farm in Cornwall, UK. More here.